Mississippi State’s offense has been inconsistent through the season, but the running game has emerged as its foundation. With Jeff Lebby’s offensive system leaning on quick tempo and balanced play-calling, the Bulldogs’ ability to run effectively keeps defenses guessing and opens up big-play opportunities.
- Fluff Bothwell (RB, Sophomore) – 84 carries, 465 yards, 6 touchdowns, averaging 5.5 yards per carry.
- Davon Booth (RB, Senior) – 105 carries, 470 yards, 6 touchdowns, averaging 4.5 yards per carry.
Together, Bothwell and Booth account for nearly 1,000 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns, forming one of the most effective backfield duos in the SEC.
Arkansas’s Run Defense: The Weak Link
The Arkansas Razorbacks’ defense has been a major concern in 2025. While the front seven has some size and strength, they’ve struggled to plug gaps and contain shifty runners. Through the mid-season mark, Arkansas has allowed:
- 1,551 rushing yards on 314 attempts
- An average of 4.94 yards per carry
- Over 190 rushing yards per game
This shows a clear weakness against physical, balanced rushing attacks. When teams establish the run early, Arkansas tends to collapse in the second half.
Comparative Performance Table
| Category | Mississippi State | Arkansas | Key Takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top RBs | Fluff Bothwell – 465 yds, 6 TDs Davon Booth – 470 yds, 6 TDs | — | Dynamic dual-threat backfield |
| Rushing Avg. | 5.0 YPC (team) | 4.9 YPC allowed | MSU’s strength meets Arkansas’s weakness |
| Rushing Yards/Game (MSU) | 165 YPG | — | Establishes offensive rhythm |
| Rushing Yards Allowed/Game (Arkansas) | — | 194 YPG | Consistently gashed by SEC opponents |
| Red-Zone Rushing Efficiency (MSU) | 90% TD conversion | 92% allowed | MSU can score efficiently inside the 20 |
| Turnover Margin | +5 | -8 | MSU protects the ball better |
| Penalty Yards/Game | 70.4 | 61.8 | Discipline remains crucial for MSU |
The Formula for Victory
1. Control the Clock with the Ground Game
Mississippi State’s success depends on time of possession. In games where they run for over 200 yards, the Bulldogs are 4–0 this season. Sustaining long drives through Bothwell’s physical inside runs and Booth’s speed to the edge can keep Arkansas’s offense off the field.
2. Exploit Weak Linebacker Play
Arkansas linebackers have struggled with gap assignments and tackling consistency. Expect Mississippi State to use counter plays, RPOs, and split-zone runs to create hesitation and open lanes. Bothwell’s ability to break arm tackles and Booth’s quick cuts in open space could turn small gains into explosive plays.
3. Red-Zone Efficiency
When Mississippi State reaches the red zone, they must finish drives with touchdowns. Arkansas ranks among the bottom SEC teams in red-zone defense, allowing points on nearly every opponent trip inside the 20. Utilizing two-back sets with Booth and Bothwell together could confuse the defense and create mismatches.
Bothwell’s Role: The Power Back
Fluff Bothwell has become Mississippi State’s go-to option in short-yardage and early-down situations. His compact frame and strong legs make him ideal for inside zone runs and goal-line power plays. When he runs north-south, the offense stays on schedule, often setting up manageable 2nd-and-4 or 3rd-and-1 situations.
In his best games this season, Bothwell has averaged over 6 yards per carry and controlled the pace from the start. His downhill running can wear down Arkansas’s defensive tackles, especially in the second half.
Booth’s Role: The Finisher
Davon Booth brings a different skill set—vision, burst, and open-field acceleration. Once Bothwell softens the front, Booth capitalizes with counter and stretch plays that attack the edges. His ability to cut back against over-pursuing defenders makes him dangerous in broken-play situations.
Booth’s six rushing touchdowns highlight his red-zone efficiency. If Mississippi State’s offensive line can get him to the second level, Arkansas’s safeties will have their hands full.
Offensive Line Performance
The offensive line has quietly been one of Mississippi State’s most improved units in 2025. The interior trio—guards and center—has excelled in run-blocking efficiency, creating movement against larger defensive lines. Their ability to double-team to the second level will be critical against Arkansas’s 3–3–5 front.
However, consistency on the road remains a concern. The Bulldogs average 3.5 yards per carry away from home compared to 5.3 yards at home. Avoiding false starts and maintaining communication will be key in a loud Razorback Stadium.
Defensive Matchups That Help the Offense
Mississippi State’s defense indirectly supports the running game. With improved turnover creation (+5 margin) and time control, the Bulldogs can afford to play patiently on offense. Forcing Arkansas into long drives will shorten the game and increase the value of each possession.
Additionally, the Razorbacks have been prone to giving up big runs between the 40-yard lines, where defensive adjustments lag and tackling angles break down. Expect Mississippi State to target those mid-field zones with draw plays and delayed handoffs.
Statistical Indicators: The Blueprint
- When Mississippi State rushes 35+ times, they win 80% of the time.
- When they rush for 200+ yards, they’re undefeated in 2025.
- When held under 130 yards rushing, they lose nearly every time.
This pattern clearly shows that run volume equals control, and control equals victory.
Three Keys to the Game
- Establish Bothwell early – Get the power game going to wear down the front.
- Feed Booth late – Use his quickness to exploit a tired defense in the fourth quarter.
- Stay disciplined – Penalties and negative plays kill momentum in road games.
If these three principles hold, Mississippi State’s offense will stay ahead of schedule, control the line of scrimmage, and keep pressure off their quarterback.
Mississippi State’s Path to Victory
The Bulldogs don’t need to reinvent their offense to win this matchup. They just need to stay committed to the run. The combination of ball control, tempo, and explosive running can limit Arkansas’s offensive possessions. By forcing the Razorbacks into a catch-up game, Mississippi State can dictate the rhythm from start to finish.
Arkansas, meanwhile, must load the box or risk being gashed. But that adjustment opens the door for play-action passes, which could allow Mississippi State to strike deep once the defense sells out to stop the run.
If Bothwell and Booth combine for 35+ carries and 180+ yards, Mississippi State’s chances to secure a road win will rise dramatically.
